How a rating works

What goes into a rating

• Every result. Final scores, adjusted for who a team played and where.
• Strength of the opposition. Beating a good team counts for more than beating a weak one.
• Recent seasons. Where a program has been, which matters most before many games are played.
• Roster continuity. How much of last season's scoring is back, and who arrived or left by transfer.
• Pace and efficiency. Points scored and allowed per possession, which shape the projected total.
• The market's memory. Closing betting lines of games already played, never the game being predicted.

How much each of these counts is the Cofield Cookbook's own recipe and stays private.