Cofield Cookbook is a college football and college basketball site that rates every team, puts a number on every game, and follows games live with advanced stats. It's built and run by one person, on a computer at home, and everything on it is free to browse.
Hello, and welcome to the Cofield Cookbook. My name is Matthew Cofield. Ever since I fell in love with college sports many years ago, I've been looking for a home for advanced statistics and the story behind the story of every college game. I've also wondered whether I could find a way to get ahead of the betting markets and predict outcomes smartly and accurately before anyone sets foot on the court or field.
When I set out to make these tools a reality, they started as two separate projects. As time went on, it made more and more sense to package them together in a way you won't find anywhere else online.
Before the Cofield Cookbook, you had to visit two or three different sites to find live advanced statistics, in-depth game recaps, and hypothetical matchups for your favorite team. Now all of that, and much more, is here in one place.
— Matthew
Every final margin, adjusted for who a team played and where. A team's rating is the number that best explains all of its results at once, with home field worth about three points.
Before a team has played much, its rating leans on a preseason estimate built from recent seasons, roster talent, transfers in and out, players lost to graduation and the preseason poll. In basketball it also weighs how much of last season's scoring is back and who arrived by transfer. That guess fades as real games pile up.
In football, how efficiently a team moves the ball play by play (expected points added) sharpens the early-season picture and drives the passing and rushing ratings. In basketball, points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and pace, set the projected total.
Once games have been played, their closing betting lines nudge each team's rating, because the market sees injuries and depth charts a results-only model can't. Only games already played count, never the line of the game being predicted.
The gap between two teams' ratings, plus home field, is the spread. From there come the projected score, the total and each side's chance to win.
Every setting was tuned on earlier seasons and then checked on seasons it never saw. Predictions are logged before kickoff and graded afterwards, and never edited.
The betting market is the toughest number in sports to beat. When the Cofield Cookbook Line and the books disagree, the books are usually right, so a big gap here is a reason to look closer, not a bet.
Everything on this site is for information and entertainment. It isn't betting advice. If you do bet, set a limit you're comfortable losing. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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